Posts tagged ‘rares’

Calculate your Alara Reborn booster box

Ok so this is in no way an accurate emulation of a real box of Alara Reborn. Magic boxes are in reality not as random as this demonstration makes them and they also usually contain fewer repeats. However, this is a little game I play when a set is drawing me in to buy a box. Each box is rumored to contain 4 Mythics, 32 Rares, and 1 Foil rare or mythic and then some foil commons and uncommons. Alara Reborn contains 10 Mythics and 35 Rares. You calculate your box the following way.

Go to: http://www.random.org/integers/

For mythics generate 4 random integers from 1 – 10

Write them down in the comments section and match the number to the name.

Example: 2 9 10 4

Defiler of Souls, Jenara, Maelstrom Nexus, & Lord of Extinction

Which isn’t a bad pull

For rares generate 32 integers from 1 – 35 then match the numbers

I got: 28 31 20 20 18 35 4 4 31 14 21 7 14 4 15 7 29 19 12 7 23 5 31 26 14 17 11 1 24 7 32 23

Realiator Griffin, Wargate, Engima Sphinx, Enigma Sphinx, Maelstrom Pulse, Unknown, Lich Lord of Unx x 2, Wargate, Mycoid Shepherd, Glory of Warfate, Time Seive, Mycoid Shepherd, Lich Lord of Unx, Knotvine Paladin, Time Seive, Finest Hour, Dauntless Escort, Spellbreaker Behemoth, Time Seive, Sages of Anima, Nemesis of Reason, Wargate, Madrush Cyclops, Mycoid Shepherd, Spellbound Dragon, Blitz Hellion, Aven Mimeomancer, Unscythe, Time Seive, Golden Xerox, & Unknown

Which is actually a pretty good pull, a lot of Time Seives and Wargates two Engima Sphinxs, a Knotvine Paladin, and a Maelstrom Pulse.

For the foil Create 1 integer from 1 – 45 with the mythics being 1 – 10 and the rares starting at 11. Aven Mimeomancer is 11 in other words.

I got 37 which translates to 27 in the rares a foil Mayeal’s Aria.

The spoiler for Alara Reborn is here

You can pre-order Alara Reborn from MtgFanatic.com.

Mythics

1. Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund

2. Defiler of Souls

3. Dragon Broodmother

4. Lord of Extinction

5. Sen Triplets

6. Sphinx of the Steel Wind

7. Thraximundar

8.Uril, the miststalker

9. Jenara, Asure of War

10. Maelstrom Nexus

Rares

1. Aven Mimeomancer

2. Filigree Angel

3. Meddling Mage

4. Lich Lord of Unx

5. Nemesis of Reason

6. Soulquake

7. Time Sieve

8. Deathbringer Thocatar

9. Lightning Reaver

10. Thought Hemorrhage

11. Blitz Hellion

12. Spellbreaker Behemoth

13. Knight of New Alara

14. Mycoid Shepherd

15. Knotvine Paladin

16. Necromancer’s Covenant

17. Spellbound Dragon

18. Maelstrom Pulse

19. Dauntless Escort

20. Enigma Sphinx

21. Glory of Warfare

22. Lords of Forgotten Alara

23. Sages of the Anima

24. Unscythe, Killer of Kings

25. Lavalanche

26. Madrush Cyclops

27. Mayael’s Aria

28. Retaliator Griffin

29. Finest Hour

30. Vedalken Heretic

31. Wargate

32. Cloven Casting

33. Fight to the Death

34. Identity Crisis

35. Predatory Advantage

I’ve done this before with other sets and found that it usually brings me down to earth with a box, however assuming that Maelstrom Pulse, Jenara, & Lord of Extinction all go for 10 USD or more directly after the initial release and the Enigma Sphinxes and other cards will retail for around 5 USD or more for a few weeks after the official release, a box is more than worth buying. I’ve calculated two or three now and the numbers do seem to add up. The added incentive of uncommons like the new Warhammer also make the set slightly more appealing. Hence, chance seems to favor cracking a case with in a week of the release.

April 21, 2009 at 7:02 am Leave a comment

Calculate Your Virtual Future Sight Box

image from dacardworld

Update: My stats were wrong. I ran 10 virtual boxes by assigning each rare a number

1 – 60 and then had a random generator produce 36 random numbers between 1 and 60. With a perfect distribution you would get 9 good rares per box, but with the more realistic simulation, I got on average 7 rares per box with 8 out of 10 boxes losing money and 2 boxes with 10 and 11 good rares in them. Hence, while Future Sight is still your best bet for a box, it’s still a pretty good chance (around 80%) that you’ll lose money on a box, keep in mind the odds for other expansions are even worse. Note: This does not include the foils or the chances of two rares in a pack (1 foil, 1 regular). Hence if I got the odd on 2 rares a booster (can’t seem to find) that might boost the value of the box. ok, got it, 36 boosters usually 1 foil rare, 18 1 foil uncommon, 12 1 foil common. Not sure on if this is a good number though. Why isn’t someone else keeping track of this? We need a box geek site.

Future Sight, a type 2 expansion of magic the gathering, consists of 180 cards.

60 of them are rare.

15 of them are sought after rares worth more than 4 USD each.

I’m listing them below

1. Venser 10 USD

2. Tarmogoyf 40 USD

3. Tomb Stalker 6 USD

4. River of Tears 7 USD

5. Slaughter Pact 5 USD

6. Sliver Legion 5 USD

7. Korlash 10 USD

8. Grove of Burnwillows 6 USD

9. Graven Cairns 6 USD

10. Epochrasite 6 USD

11. Coalition Relic 7 USD

12. Nimbus Maze 8 USD

13. Pact of Negation 8 USD

14. Bridge from Below 4 USD

15. Horizon Canopy10 USD

(prices from starcitygames.com)

15 valuable rares out of 60 means you have a 1/4 chance of pulling one per pack (assuming no repeats of less valuable cards)

Hence a booster box contains 36 packs i.e. 1/4 of 36 means 9 packs with a decent rare.

The cost of one booster box is high in Thailand, 3400 baht, but around 90 USD everywhere else. Hence, it’s possible (especially if you pull a Tarmogoyf) to make back the cost of a box. You can calculate your potential earnings by taking a random number generator 1 – 15 and then getting 9 random numbers. You then match the number to the rare and calculate the total cost. This of course ignores the other 27 rares and valuable uncommons like Delay (1 USD). But it does give you an idea of how likely it is that buying Future Sight boxes could net you a profit. My first virtual box netted me a big 57 USD, my second went

1 13 2 9 14 8 12 1 13 i.e. 10 + 8 + 40 + 6 + 4 + 6 + 8 + 10 + 8 = 100 USD.

Add in delays and foils (1 rare Foil per box, 2 uncommons, 3 commons) and you seriously can pull a profit. Keep in mind, this formula doesn’t work for Planar Chaos (to few valuable rares), Time Spiral and Lorwyn (they’re bigger sets), and Cold Snap. Lorwyn is the next most likely to be profitable expansion with Time Spiral in third. I didn’t calculate Cold Snap seeing as how it will be phased out of Type 2 in the near future. Maybe Morningtide will be the same value? But regardless, you run pretty decent chances of a profit on a box especially if you can manage to hock 27 less valuable rares and uncommons.

p.s. I’m not a mathematician or a stastician, so this might be a truly horrible way or calculating probability.

December 25, 2007 at 1:06 pm Leave a comment


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