Calculate Your Virtual Future Sight Box

December 25, 2007 at 1:06 pm Leave a comment

image from dacardworld

Update: My stats were wrong. I ran 10 virtual boxes by assigning each rare a number

1 – 60 and then had a random generator produce 36 random numbers between 1 and 60. With a perfect distribution you would get 9 good rares per box, but with the more realistic simulation, I got on average 7 rares per box with 8 out of 10 boxes losing money and 2 boxes with 10 and 11 good rares in them. Hence, while Future Sight is still your best bet for a box, it’s still a pretty good chance (around 80%) that you’ll lose money on a box, keep in mind the odds for other expansions are even worse. Note: This does not include the foils or the chances of two rares in a pack (1 foil, 1 regular). Hence if I got the odd on 2 rares a booster (can’t seem to find) that might boost the value of the box. ok, got it, 36 boosters usually 1 foil rare, 18 1 foil uncommon, 12 1 foil common. Not sure on if this is a good number though. Why isn’t someone else keeping track of this? We need a box geek site.

Future Sight, a type 2 expansion of magic the gathering, consists of 180 cards.

60 of them are rare.

15 of them are sought after rares worth more than 4 USD each.

I’m listing them below

1. Venser 10 USD

2. Tarmogoyf 40 USD

3. Tomb Stalker 6 USD

4. River of Tears 7 USD

5. Slaughter Pact 5 USD

6. Sliver Legion 5 USD

7. Korlash 10 USD

8. Grove of Burnwillows 6 USD

9. Graven Cairns 6 USD

10. Epochrasite 6 USD

11. Coalition Relic 7 USD

12. Nimbus Maze 8 USD

13. Pact of Negation 8 USD

14. Bridge from Below 4 USD

15. Horizon Canopy10 USD

(prices from

15 valuable rares out of 60 means you have a 1/4 chance of pulling one per pack (assuming no repeats of less valuable cards)

Hence a booster box contains 36 packs i.e. 1/4 of 36 means 9 packs with a decent rare.

The cost of one booster box is high in Thailand, 3400 baht, but around 90 USD everywhere else. Hence, it’s possible (especially if you pull a Tarmogoyf) to make back the cost of a box. You can calculate your potential earnings by taking a random number generator 1 – 15 and then getting 9 random numbers. You then match the number to the rare and calculate the total cost. This of course ignores the other 27 rares and valuable uncommons like Delay (1 USD). But it does give you an idea of how likely it is that buying Future Sight boxes could net you a profit. My first virtual box netted me a big 57 USD, my second went

1 13 2 9 14 8 12 1 13 i.e. 10 + 8 + 40 + 6 + 4 + 6 + 8 + 10 + 8 = 100 USD.

Add in delays and foils (1 rare Foil per box, 2 uncommons, 3 commons) and you seriously can pull a profit. Keep in mind, this formula doesn’t work for Planar Chaos (to few valuable rares), Time Spiral and Lorwyn (they’re bigger sets), and Cold Snap. Lorwyn is the next most likely to be profitable expansion with Time Spiral in third. I didn’t calculate Cold Snap seeing as how it will be phased out of Type 2 in the near future. Maybe Morningtide will be the same value? But regardless, you run pretty decent chances of a profit on a box especially if you can manage to hock 27 less valuable rares and uncommons.

p.s. I’m not a mathematician or a stastician, so this might be a truly horrible way or calculating probability.

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links for 2007-12-21 links for 2007-12-26

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