Archive for December, 2007
Ironically, uber-sincere right wing Christian cartoonist Jack Chick is banned in Thailand. Religious parody laws perhaps?
with marjane satarapi. for the release of persepolis in film.
some middle easterners on dubai’s human trafficking
image from dacardworld
Update: My stats were wrong. I ran 10 virtual boxes by assigning each rare a number
1 – 60 and then had a random generator produce 36 random numbers between 1 and 60. With a perfect distribution you would get 9 good rares per box, but with the more realistic simulation, I got on average 7 rares per box with 8 out of 10 boxes losing money and 2 boxes with 10 and 11 good rares in them. Hence, while Future Sight is still your best bet for a box, it’s still a pretty good chance (around 80%) that you’ll lose money on a box, keep in mind the odds for other expansions are even worse. Note: This does not include the foils or the chances of two rares in a pack (1 foil, 1 regular). Hence if I got the odd on 2 rares a booster (can’t seem to find) that might boost the value of the box. ok, got it, 36 boosters usually 1 foil rare, 18 1 foil uncommon, 12 1 foil common. Not sure on if this is a good number though. Why isn’t someone else keeping track of this? We need a box geek site.
Future Sight, a type 2 expansion of magic the gathering, consists of 180 cards.
60 of them are rare.
15 of them are sought after rares worth more than 4 USD each.
I’m listing them below
1. Venser 10 USD
2. Tarmogoyf 40 USD
3. Tomb Stalker 6 USD
4. River of Tears 7 USD
5. Slaughter Pact 5 USD
6. Sliver Legion 5 USD
7. Korlash 10 USD
8. Grove of Burnwillows 6 USD
9. Graven Cairns 6 USD
10. Epochrasite 6 USD
11. Coalition Relic 7 USD
12. Nimbus Maze 8 USD
13. Pact of Negation 8 USD
14. Bridge from Below 4 USD
15. Horizon Canopy10 USD
(prices from starcitygames.com)
15 valuable rares out of 60 means you have a 1/4 chance of pulling one per pack (assuming no repeats of less valuable cards)
Hence a booster box contains 36 packs i.e. 1/4 of 36 means 9 packs with a decent rare.
The cost of one booster box is high in Thailand, 3400 baht, but around 90 USD everywhere else. Hence, it’s possible (especially if you pull a Tarmogoyf) to make back the cost of a box. You can calculate your potential earnings by taking a random number generator 1 – 15 and then getting 9 random numbers. You then match the number to the rare and calculate the total cost. This of course ignores the other 27 rares and valuable uncommons like Delay (1 USD). But it does give you an idea of how likely it is that buying Future Sight boxes could net you a profit. My first virtual box netted me a big 57 USD, my second went
1 13 2 9 14 8 12 1 13 i.e. 10 + 8 + 40 + 6 + 4 + 6 + 8 + 10 + 8 = 100 USD.
Add in delays and foils (1 rare Foil per box, 2 uncommons, 3 commons) and you seriously can pull a profit. Keep in mind, this formula doesn’t work for Planar Chaos (to few valuable rares), Time Spiral and Lorwyn (they’re bigger sets), and Cold Snap. Lorwyn is the next most likely to be profitable expansion with Time Spiral in third. I didn’t calculate Cold Snap seeing as how it will be phased out of Type 2 in the near future. Maybe Morningtide will be the same value? But regardless, you run pretty decent chances of a profit on a box especially if you can manage to hock 27 less valuable rares and uncommons.
p.s. I’m not a mathematician or a stastician, so this might be a truly horrible way or calculating probability.
they’ve broken all treaties with the US. “The Lakota reservations are among the most impoverished areas in North America, a shameful legacy of broken treaties and apartheid policies. Lakota has the highest death rate in the United States and Lakota men ha
Native American rights movements have been overlooked for years, here’s one of ‘m.
basically, they set a national standard that’s a tad underambitious, far to off to met kyoto requirements, and then proceeded to block 11 states attempts to regulate their own emissions from cars.
“taken hostage in Iraq, where she was gone to do charity work. Rather than being seen as a victim, she is considered as an embarrassment for the whole Japanese society and subject to hostility and threats”
an article on corruption in Nigeria’s government
where posts some type of documentary that won’t run on my computer? anyway, it’s where.
it’s an idea
“So there are girls going into the arts that have better math skills than the boys going into sciences (the girls just happened to have even better verbal skills). ” don’t usually post these things, but this one is interesting becuase being a better reade
Queen of the ka-toey
Second Life is depopulating as japanese virtual worlds rise. what is the reason for japanese obessions with virtual spaces?