Animals and Predictions

January 8, 2007 at 3:04 pm Leave a comment

Let’s say we have an animal that performs a certian action, say a fish that eats a certian amount of algae. Now let’s say the amount of algae eaten is correalated with another event, say weather patterns. Now could we interrupt the amount of algae eaten as a statement of confidence i.e. a probability and then use the fish’s own predictions to place bets on a prediction market? While the concept of nature as services has been around for awhile and is gaining credence in agricultural circles, it seems like it’s the creation of new product markets for nature that will ensure it’s survival. After all, animals experience the world from a different perspective and environment, making them perhaps at times better estimators of effects and cause than people can be. It is possible that the aggregate behavoir of a group or merely of one animal could give expressions of confidence high enough to effectively make it salaried. Why wouldn’t an insurance company pay for an agent that can accurately predict possible levels of devastation to insured properties via land slides, earthquakes, etc? This in turn would turn around the flow of capital, if a school of fish were earning say a million or so per year through their predictions on tidal patterns and severe storms, then portions of their salary would spread to their food source and other vital co-inhabitants. Hence, once one group of animals gets money for their actions, then the neighborhood get’s better as a result as their own cash flow affects their community as a whole.

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Entry filed under: media.

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