Archive for July, 2006

Intrade

Just won my first bid on intrade. Bet the dow would close -25 at 12 and at 12:00 it went from -22 to -26. Is there any skills to stock trading or is it just luck? On the other hand I have managed to hedge my bets on other markets. I sold some stock to people who left their positions open on a July 31st release date for the PS3. Yeah that was a pretty good bet to against =) It’s surpsing how addictive it is, but it’s also interesting in that the DOW isn’t a rational thing, while on a micro-level it might obey some basic rules of fluctuations on a macro-level it’s just basically chaos in fact it has a far more diverse spread than an actual random number generator. It does make one wonder if Stock trading has anything to do research and market know how and more with releazing the meta-strategies of manipulating the market itself for instance trolling for open bids from abandonned accounts, or sniping on a 12 p.m. bid at 11:59 etc. Strategies has less to do with business and more to do with the intricacies of the market itself.

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July 31, 2006 at 4:11 pm Leave a comment

links for 2006-07-30

July 30, 2006 at 3:17 pm Leave a comment

The new war is the old war

Myself, I keep going back to my no doubt sloppy and
imperfect understanding of Thomas S. Kuhn’s The Structure Of Scientific
Revolutions. If the theory of “fourth generation war” is viewed as a
new paradigm (and it seems to me to meet the criteria) then this is
more than a failure of perception on the part of neoconservatives.” From William Gibson’s blog via metafilter.

However here is Wikipedia’s definition of Fourth Generation Warfare:

Fourth generation warfare (4GW) is a concept defined in 1989 by a team of American analysts, including William S. Lind,
used to describe warfare’s return to a decentralized form. In terms of
generational modern warfare, the fourth generation signifies the nation
states’ loss of their monopoly on combat forces, returning in a sense
to the uncontrolled combat of pre-modern times.”

What I think we’re witness is two different paradign shifts actually. One, terrorist forces are employing new techniques but are stuck on ancient ideologies and are still fighting in the older pre-state powered form of warfare while state powered war fare is becoming more exacting, after all Israel is making the claim to not be attacking Lebanon (despite the obvious reality that is exactly what they’re doing), but rather Hizbollah who happens to be in Lebanon. Such paradoxes are increasinly common as state powered warfare focuses in on non-governmental targets, Afganhistan was invaded to find Al-Queda, but the problem with this increasing accuracy is that it negates the former moral obligations. Becuase we went to war in Iraq, we owe it to Iraq to rebuild their country etc. Ya know put in some roads, maybe pay some folks 500,000 a year in danger pay to do jobs that Iraqis could be trained to do in 5 minutes like screwing in the bolts on cell towers etc. On the other hand becuase we invaded Afganhistan to find terrorists etc. we’re somehow not obliged to feel the same level of duty to them.

This would explain, it seems to me, the apparently
literal impossibility of explaining the fundamentally counterproductive
nature of the United State’s invasion of Iraq, or of what’s currently
going on in Lebanon, to those who disagree.”

Actually The Economist, after making a rather good case for Israel’s pre-empetive strike on Hizbollah, showed that quite clearly the occuption of the Gaza strip is counter productive, by summarizing polls and statements by Palestians during years of relative stability and warfare. In other words, the leave them alone approach can easily be measured by the agressiveness a population shows in opinion polls and the correalation this has to increased incendence in terrorist attacks. And ya know what? It turns out that launching rockets into someone’s country pisses them off. Hence, while occupation will ensure safety in the near term as the former terrorists are suppresed it will increase in the long term as the populos increasingly supports the terrorist’s acts do to their sense that occupation is unjust. But this is only for Israel, after all the U.S. occupation of Iraq had the immediate affect of scaring arabic governments into democratic reforms, but if in the long term the U.S. occupation of Iraq will be a positive influence or a destabilizing one as the rest of the middle east has to clean up refugees and surges in militant groups is another question and also the failure of Iraq and the almost unbeleivable ignorance and neglect of Afgahnistan is hardly a good model for building good will. After all less than 20% of the U.S. nation building attempts are sucessfull, but who knows maybe Iraq will turn out like South Korea and Japan? But then again, there is more to effects of the war than just favoritism and earning good will it also has ensured that a for generation of Iraqis and others the U.S. will stand as perhaps the most irrational and ill-advised colonial power in history, after all the taking of lands from native peoples all over the world less than 150 years ago was justified by pre-modernist logics that it was the westener’s right as the more intelligent barque and victorian westeners were better able to utilize the land’s resources and educate those “savages” meanwhile Americans might be the first people to have a mass mystery on their hand as to why they’re colonialists in the first place which is certianly a spot that no one really wants to be in and has created a huge gap in knowing in our culture and a paranoia that Americans have grown so different that they’re no longer able to translate between the various paradigms they inhabit. It is the later that is perhaps more damaging after all the population with the world’s largest army can’t understand the various arguements inside of it’s own culture then it’s actions will never become balanced and consistent over time.

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July 30, 2006 at 11:45 am Leave a comment

water skis by Simon McGee

This came in a spam mail today and I thought it was worth posting:

Woman, he said, with grand dignity, you forgit yus-sef; shu knowware Ive ben
swells I do. He lifted up his honest voice and cried aloud for joy. Most of the
company rolled upon thefloor in convulsions of laughter. and turned him upside
down and hebelched out a double handful of shot. The exhibition came to a close
by the chair overturning. Alecks ivories gleamed in the darkness as he
disappeared.
Hes talked mighty fine to me and Marann, answered Mrs.
The other
wastapping with his pencil upon the little shelf lying across the rail. said
Elder Brown, affectionately retaining theJews hand.
It was at this very nick,
so to speak, that Mr.
She triedevery conceivable method, but time hung
heavily.
Hisnative activity found many more objects for its exertion than
before. Sorrels only half-way to the color of her top-knot, anit do seem like
red oughter to soot red. Well, now, I reckon youll laugh for some cause,you
will.
Elder Brown was soberer at that moment than he had been for hours.
He saw
the elder zigzag along the street, and beheld him about to turna friendly
corner. Now here is one; pink silk, with delicate pale bluefeathers. Like to
oblige you, but cant right now; will fix it for you lateron.
Elder Brown held
it out, upside down, at arms-length.
In course I shall talk up for the house
whensomever andwharsomever I go or stay.

and then the images with the ad. etc.

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July 29, 2006 at 10:07 pm Leave a comment

Things I’m betting on on News Futures

Democracts will pick up seats in 2006

8 shares for at 90 each.

Avain Flu in EU before US
8 shares at 87 each. I also think that Avian flu won’t reach the EU at all unless Turkey is admitted.

Nikkei goes up July 31st again
5 at 80 something. Think the Nikkei will keep going up in small increments on Monday. Of course if this means New York time or Tokyo does make a difference.

No military action against Iran in 2006
I think it was 6 at 80. I don’t military action will occur against Iran in 2006, I think Israel-Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Iraq will continue to soak up the violence for the foreseeable future.

News Futures.com 

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July 29, 2006 at 7:10 pm Leave a comment

links for 2006-07-29

July 29, 2006 at 3:17 pm Leave a comment

Fictions: NGO and Grant Stock Market — Distributed neural network for day trading

This is an idea that’s been kicking around in my head for awhile.

A website that let’s people pool funds to create NGOs and grants.
I.E. you put up like 5 bucks, someone else puts up 5 bucks

all for a common cause that an existing NGO doesn’t support.

So yeah know if you wanted to create a car share service for the poor,

or fund research into alternative energy. Contributions could also be sent to

a fund and returns split evenly by the contriburions hence the scale of the projects would create a larger fund with the possibility of scaling up returns.

This originally was two different ideas, one in which people could contribute money towards scienteific prizes yeah know like a solar panel that’s competitive with coal or create grants for research they would like to see, applicants entries would evaluated on and voted by contributors to the fund. The other being  one for NGOs.

Another idea is a neural network that one hosts on one’s server and which links with other neural networks to create a large distributed network of stock trading algorithims. These algorithims could then take advantage of having multiple accounts working in unison, borrowing from each other from shorts, and sharing information. I.E. one big mind operating on several different stock markets. Whoever installs the software on their server would need to pay the initial fees to start their own account, but the network could then help recoup the costs of the server hence sites that have trouble making it just off advertising or commerce could have an alternative form of income. Additionally, the neural network could let you invest money via credit or debit hence making setting up a money market account even easier. Perhaps it could also post your profits and losses to your blog automatically.

p.s. no one on intrade would take my bet on the nikkei going up. Bastards, I could have made some money at your expense =)

fictions ideas

July 28, 2006 at 7:49 pm Leave a comment

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